Model assumptions

Assuming the yield volatility scales with the current yield level with zero drift, we have:

$$ dy=\sigma_0ydW\\d\ln y=-\frac{1}{2}\sigma_0^2dt+\sigma_0dW $$

where $y$ is the yield, $\sigma_0$ is the proportional yield volatility, $t$ is the time, and $W$ is the Weiner process.

This is called the Constant Proportional Yield Volatility Model, or the CP Model.

Distribution shape

Therefore starting with yield $y_0$ at time $0$, the distribution of yield $\ln y$ at time $t$ is:

$$ f(\ln y)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi\sigma_0^2t}}e^{-\frac{(\ln y -\ln y_0+\frac{1}{2}\sigma_0^2t)^2}{2\sigma_0^2t}} $$

Three ways to determine y0 and σ0

There are several ways to determine $y_0$ and $\sigma_0$: